GEO sits inside a corner of the economy most investors never see, built on long-term government contracts and policy-dependent demand. Here’s why that business model is drawing fresh institutional interest.
The low valuation multiples for value stocks provide a margin of safety that growth stocks rarely offer.
However, the challenge lies in determining whether these cheap assets are genuinely undervalued or simply on sale due to their potentially deteriorating business models.
GEO Group’s third quarter was marked by substantial revenue growth, but the market reacted negatively as margin pressures and near-term headwinds overshadowed the top-line beat. Management attributed the sales gains to new and expanded contracts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the U.S. Marshals, which drove facility occupancy and transportation services. CEO George Zoley highlighted that "these facility activations have increased our total ICE capacity to over 26,000 beds, and our current census is over 22,000, the highest ICE population we've ever had." However, higher staffing costs and the expense of ramping up new contracts weighed on overall profitability.
Private corrections company GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) beat Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q3 CY2025, with sales up 13.1% year on year to $682.3 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $663.5 million was less impressive, coming in 4.7% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $1.24 per share was 58.8% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Shares of private corrections company GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) fell 11.1% in the morning session after it reported strong third-quarter results but issued a disappointing forecast for the fourth quarter. Investors appeared to focus on the future outlook rather than the past quarter's performance. The company's guidance for fourth-quarter revenue, at a midpoint of $663.5 million, came in 4.7% below analysts' estimates. Furthermore, the forecast for GAAP earnings per share of $0.25 at the midpoint missed analyst expectations by 17.4%.
This disappointing outlook overshadowed the strong third-quarter report, in which revenue grew 13.1% year on year to $682.3 million, beating estimates. Similarly, its GAAP earnings per share of $1.24 was 58.5% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
Private corrections company GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) announced better-than-expected revenue in Q3 CY2025, with sales up 13.1% year on year to $682.3 million. On the other hand, next quarter’s revenue guidance of $663.5 million was less impressive, coming in 4.7% below analysts’ estimates. Its GAAP profit of $1.24 per share was 58.5% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
GEO Group reported Q3 2025 earnings, beating revenue and adjusted EPS estimates. The company announced major new contracts and provided updated 2025 guidance.
Shares of private corrections company GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) jumped 6.5% in the afternoon session after the company announced its subsidiary, BI Incorporated, was awarded a two-year contract by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The agreement is for the continued provision of electronic monitoring, case management, and supervision services under the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP). The contract begins with an initial one-year term, effective October 1, 2025, and includes an option for an additional year. This award confirms an ongoing relationship with a key government client, providing investors with increased confidence in the company's operational stability and future revenue from this program.
A number of stocks fell in the afternoon session after a report from The Conference Board showed its Consumer Confidence Index fell for a second consecutive month to 94.2, its lowest level since April 2025.
Value investing has created more billionaires than any other strategy, like Warren Buffett, who built his fortune by purchasing wonderful businesses at reasonable prices.
But these hidden gems are few and far between - many stocks that appear cheap often stay that way because they face structural issues.
A company that generates cash isn’t automatically a winner.
Some businesses stockpile cash but fail to reinvest wisely, limiting their ability to expand.
Quarterly earnings results are a good time to check in on a company’s progress, especially compared to its peers in the same sector. Today we are looking at GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) and the best and worst performers in the safety & security services industry.
Even if a company is profitable, it doesn’t always mean it’s a great investment.
Some struggle to maintain growth, face looming threats, or fail to reinvest wisely, limiting their future potential.
Shares of private corrections company GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) fell 3.7% in the afternoon session after a media report detailed allegations of abuse and neglect at an immigrant detention center run by the private corrections company.
A number of stocks jumped in the afternoon session after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut despite showing persistent inflation.
Wall Street has set ambitious price targets for the stocks in this article.
While this suggests attractive upside potential, it’s important to remain skeptical because analysts face institutional pressures that can sometimes lead to overly optimistic forecasts.
